A Peace Imperative: What Azerbaijan and Armenia Must Get Right

The recent “real peace” between Azerbaijan and Armenia is a welcome development, marking an end to decades of intermittent war. The conflict has primarily centered on Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous region claimed by both nations.

Azerbaijan’s insistence on changes to Armenia’s constitution before signing a final peace deal reflects its deeper concern about territorial claims and regional influence. Armenia’s constitution includes a reference to a Soviet-era document calling for the reunification of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, which Azerbaijan views as a challenge to its sovereignty. This constitutional provision is not merely symbolic; it speaks to a broader struggle for control over the South Caucasus region.

The proposed transport corridor, TRIPP, would give Azerbaijan direct access to Nakhchivan and Turkey, cutting across Armenia in the process. The U.S.-backed infrastructure project aims to diversify energy and trade flows away from Russia, with Washington providing significant support. However, completion of the project will depend on cooperation between multiple parties, including Azerbaijan, Armenia, and their international partners.

The U.S.-brokered peace agreement last August marked a significant turning point in relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has expressed willingness to hold a referendum to change the constitution, but his Civil Contract party lacks the parliamentary majority needed for this step. To move forward, both sides must navigate their differences on constitutional changes.

Azerbaijan’s stance on constitutional changes may seem inflexible, but it is an attempt to address historical grievances and protect its territorial integrity. Armenia will need to confront its own national identity and the implications of reunification with Nagorno-Karabakh if a lasting peace is to be achieved.

The regional dynamics at play are complex, involving not just Azerbaijan and Armenia but also Russia, Turkey, Iran, and the United States. Washington’s backing for TRIPP has sent positive signals to Baku, but meaningful reforms will require cooperation between multiple parties.

A lasting peace in the South Caucasus requires a careful balancing act – one that addresses historical grievances while acknowledging the regional implications of infrastructure development. Azerbaijan and Armenia must work together with their international partners to build a stable and prosperous region, addressing centuries-old animosities along the way.

The world is watching as these two nations strive to overcome significant challenges and build a lasting peace. The rewards of a stable South Caucasus far outweigh the obstacles, but progress will require compromise and cooperation on multiple fronts.