Canada Remains Anti-Nuke but Path to Bomb Getting Shorter

The notion that Canada is anti-nuclear might be reassuring, but it’s a comforting fiction. The truth is more nuanced, and it’s precisely this ambiguity that has some experts sounding alarm bells.

Canada’s status as the world’s second-largest producer of uranium means it has the necessary materials to develop nuclear capabilities. This is not a moral issue; rather, it’s a technical reality. Canada’s stance on nuclear disarmament is admirable, but its actual path to acquiring nuclear weapons is far from impossible and increasingly feasible.

CANDU reactors, which have been the cornerstone of Canada’s nuclear program for decades, are often touted as proliferation-proof technologies. However, this notion is nothing more than a myth. These reactors can produce plutonium-239, a highly sought-after isotope for nuclear bombs, with alarming efficiency. The ease with which plutonium can be produced in CANDU reactors makes Canada an attractive candidate for clandestine nuclear pursuits.

Canada’s historical involvement in the Manhattan Project and its subsequent decision to freeze out collaboration with the United States provides a fascinating case study. This period of isolation, coupled with the country’s unique reactor design, has inadvertently created a perfect storm for nuclear proliferation. It’s almost as if history is repeating itself, with Canada on a collision course with the threshold of becoming a nuclear arms power.

Nuclear weapons expert Steve Fetter has been vocal about Canada’s potential for nuclear development. He notes that “the only thing that inhibits Canada is the will to do it,” sending shivers down the spines of those concerned about global security.

The CANDU Conundrum

The design of CANDU reactors makes them ideal for producing plutonium-239, which can be easily turned into a nuclear weapon. This is not a hypothetical scenario; India’s first nuclear test in 1974 used a Canadian heavy water reactor to produce the necessary material. Canada has been at the forefront of nuclear technology, and its reactors have inadvertently facilitated the development of nuclear weapons.

A New Era of Nuclear Uncertainty

The push for advanced reactors, such as small modular reactors (SMRs), adds another layer of complexity to Canada’s nuclear landscape. These reactors require enriched uranium, which brings with it a host of proliferation concerns. The use of high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) in SMRs is particularly worrying, as it blurs the line between civilian and military applications.

A Slippery Slope

Canada’s decision to pursue enrichment capabilities, coupled with its foray into advanced reactors, has created a perfect storm of nuclear uncertainty. While the government maintains that these developments are purely for peaceful purposes, the risks associated with HALEU and enriched uranium cannot be ignored.

As Canada navigates this treacherous landscape, it would do well to remember the words of Ed Lyman: “The IAEA considers indirect-use material you can’t directly use in a bomb… But there’s evidence, both historical and technical, that that’s not true.” The warning signs are clear: Canada is careening towards a nuclear precipice, and the consequences of a miscalculation could be catastrophic.

Ultimately, it’s not about what Canada can or cannot do; it’s about what it chooses to do. Will the country continue down this slippery slope, inching closer to becoming a nuclear arms power? Or will it take a step back, acknowledging the risks associated with its nuclear endeavors and recommitting itself to the principles of disarmament? Only time will tell.