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Wisconsin Primaries Expose Limits of Polls and Prediction Markets

The Pollsters' Puzzle: When Forecasts Fail to Deliver The primary elections in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Minnesota have left the polling industry reeling. State Rep.

Francesca Hong's narrow loss in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary was a surprise, given that polls had predicted a comfortable win for her.

However, this outcome is not an isolated incident; similar polling misses have been observed in other primary contests across the country.

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